Oh So Much Has Happened

No, I have not been lost. I have just been posting a lot of stuff in a lot of places. I now realize the error of my ways so let me get you up to date. Well, sorta up to date.

  • I am now living in Guatemala City. It’s my daughter’s fault and has to do with University Mariano Galvez.
  • In case you didn’t notice, I am still alive.
  • I continue to be a geek with Linux and assorted electronics hardware being my things.
  • No, I am not scared of Coronavirus.

On Coronavirus, the mainstream media is the lame media. I recommend George Webb on YouTube to get a real picture of what is happening. In summary, it is a bioweapon, probably from NATO with the primary target being the U.S. For example, let’s look at Guatemala statistics.

  • Population of about 18 million.
  • 25 (I think) Coronavirus cases.
  • One death.
  • Ten cured.

While I don’t think the pandemic is over, I think it is targeted. Clearly, Guatemala is not the target. We are but a little bit of noise in the view of what is happening.

This has, however, inspired me to start thinking of what a world without US would mean for Guatemala. Amazing as it may seem to Usanos, I don’t think it would be really traumatic. Let’s look at a few data points:

  • The biggest part of Guatemalan imports, about 20%, is petroleum. First, I expect the cost will significantly decrease as the cost of petroleum has decreased. Now, I expect most of that is from the US but it clearly doesn’t need to be. Assuming the US war on Venezuela can be terminated, Venezuela can supply the petroleum needs of Guatemala.
  • While vehicle imports are number two, there is no reason to see the US as the source. The buses you see here are from Brazil and Sweden. For cars, assuming electric vehicles become a bigger percentage of imports, I see China as the primary source. (Note that Tesla now has a factory in China.) Even if we are talking traditional gasoline-powered vehicles, I think Mexico and Brazil will be the primary sources.
  • Guatemala imports clothing but also exports clothing. It would seem that re-targeting addresses that issue.
  • Initially, I was concerned about “tools”. Lots of them come from Brazil, more from Mexico (e.g., Truper). I now see no issue here.

There is a lot of “junk” imported from China. I am talking about plastic products and items that can almost be classified as consumable. That might continue but, based on low wages here, much of this could be produced locally. No reason to be concerned.

Finally, food is a question. I don’t see it as an issue. Guatemala produces lot of food — enough that it is a regional exporter. The few things that Guatemala imports here is not in any way critical. For example, importing canned tomatoes from the US when Guatemala produces more tomatoes than it can eat shows how it is a non-issue.

So, I am here. As the first world fights a war — no, I don’t really understand what kind of war — we are fine here.